To calculate the prediction of the power generation amount with high accuracy even when the amount of the track record data of the Generator power generation amount is insufficient or the amount of the weather track record data similar to the weather prediction result is small. A power generation amount prediction apparatus for predicting a power generation amount at a power plant that performs power generation by use of renewable energy, including: a model generation unit that generates a mathematical model of the power generation amount of the power plant in regard to each model generation time based on a weather track record and an output power track record in regard to the power plant; a similar track record data extraction unit that obtains a weather track record similar to weather prediction data and a corresponding output power track record as similar track record data; a model accuracy calculation unit that calculates accuracy of each of a plurality of mathematical models of the model generation unit in a weather condition similar to the weather prediction data; a model selection unit that selects a mathematical model to be used for the prediction by using the accuracy of each of the models; and a model output power prediction unit that predicts the power generation amount of the power plant by using the selected mathematical model.
Legal claims defining the scope of protection, as filed with the USPTO.
1. A system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system, including a power plant performing power generation by use of renewable energy, comprising: a central processing unit (CPU); a power generation amount prediction apparatus for predicting a power generation amount at a power plant that performs power generation by use of renewable energy, comprising: a first database memory in communication with the CPU, the first database memory storing a plurality of instructions executable by the CPU to cause the implementation of: a model generation unit that generates a model of the power generation amount of the power plant in regard to each model generation time based on a weather track record and an output power track record in regard to the power plant; a similar track record data extraction unit that obtains a weather track record similar to weather prediction data and a corresponding output power track record as similar track record data; a model accuracy unit that determines accuracy of each of a plurality of models of the model generation unit in a weather condition similar to the weather prediction data by using the similar track record data, wherein each of the models in the plurality of models differ by one or more of a recorded model generation time and/or a power generation site; a model selection unit that selects a model from the plurality of models to be used for the prediction by using the accuracy of each of the models; and a model output power prediction unit that predicts the power generation amount of the power plant by using the selected model; and a second database memory in communication with the CPU, the second database memory storing a second plurality of instructions executable by the CPU to cause the implementation of: a system condition prediction unit that predicts a system condition of the electric power system including the power plant performing the power generation by use of renewable energy in terms of a time series by using the predicted power generation amount; a control target determination unit that determines a control target generator for system stabilization when a deterioration in the predicted system condition is predicted; and a control command unit that transmits a control command to the determined control target generator to control an output of the determined control target generator to stabilize the system condition of the electric power system including the power plant.
2. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 1 , wherein the model generation unit obtains the model by adding a characteristic and an installation condition of the power plant to a primary model of the power plant generated based on the weather track record and the output power track record.
3. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 1 , wherein the similar track record data extraction unit extracts the weather track record similar to the weather prediction data, extracts an output power track record at a time of the weather track record, and thereby obtains the weather track record and the output power track record in combination.
4. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 1 , wherein when the similar track record data extraction unit has no weather track record similar to the weather prediction data in regard to a first power plant, the model selection unit selects a model of a second power plant having a similar weather track record.
5. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 1 , wherein: the model generation unit generates a model of renewable energy by using weather track record data, output power track record data of renewable energy, characteristic data of renewable energy and installation condition data of renewable energy, the similar track record data extraction unit extracts weather track record data similar to the weather prediction data and corresponding output power track record data by using the weather prediction data, the weather track record data and the output power track record data, the model accuracy unit determines accuracy of the model by using the model, the similar track record data and model selection result data, the model selection unit selects a model to be used for the prediction by using the accuracy of each model, and the model output power prediction unit predicts renewable energy output power by using the selected model.
6. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 5 , wherein the model generation unit adds the characteristic data and the installation condition data of the same renewable energy to the model generated based on the weather track record data and the output power track record data.
7. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 5 , wherein the model accuracy unit determines the accuracy of the model based on output power track record data obtained by inputting the weather track record data included in the similar track record data to the model generated by the model generation unit and the output power track record data included in the similar track record data, and determines the accuracy of the model included in selection result data of the model of the renewable energy output power based on output power track record data obtained by inputting the weather track record data included in the similar track record data to one or more models included in the model selection result data and the output power track record data included in the similar track record data.
8. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 5 , wherein the model selection unit selects the model of the renewable energy output power having the highest accuracy by making accuracy comparison of the model of the renewable energy output power generated by the model generation unit and one of more of the models included in the model selection result data.
9. The system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system according to claim 5 , wherein the model output power prediction unit predicts the renewable energy output power by inputting the weather prediction data to the model selected by the model selection unit.
10. A system stabilization method for stabilizing an electric power system, including a power plant performing power generation by use of renewable energy, comprising: a power generation amount prediction method for predicting a power generation amount at a power plant that performs power generation by use of renewable energy comprising: generating a model of the power generation amount of the power plant in regard to each model generation time based on a weather track record and an output power track record in regard to the power plant; and selecting a model to be used for the prediction from a plurality of models by determining accuracy of each of the models of the plurality of models in weather condition similar to weather prediction data extracted from the weather track record and the output power track record, wherein each of the models in the plurality of models differ by one or more of a recorded model generation time and/or a power generation site; predicting a system condition of the electric power system including the power plant performing the power generation by use of renewable energy in terms of a time series by using a predicted power generation amount, wherein the predicted power generation amount is predicted by using the selected model; determining a control target generator for system stabilization upon predicting a deterioration in the predicted system condition is predicted; and transmitting a control command to the determined control target generator to control an output of the determined control target generator to stabilize the system condition of the electric power system including the power plant.
11. The system stabilization method for stabilizing an electric power system according to claim 10 , wherein the model is obtained by adding a characteristic and an installation condition of the power plant to a primary model of the power generation amount of the power plant generated based on the weather track record and the output power track record.
12. The system stabilization method for stabilizing an electric power system according to claim 10 , wherein when there is no weather track record similar to the weather prediction data in regard to a first power plant, a model of a second power plant having similar weather track record and output power track record is selected as the model of the power generation amount of the first power plant.
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October 26, 2016
July 12, 2022
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