A system and method are disclosed for a supply chain planner to generate a distributional demand forecast for slow-moving inventory in a supply chain. The distributional demand forecast model takes into account explanatory variables and historical sales data to address seasonality and special events and permits sharing of demand information across different stores and stock-keeping units. The supply chain planner performs inference on the explanatory variables and historical sales data to generate process parameters and latent variables. Other embodiments are also disclosed.
Legal claims defining the scope of protection, as filed with the USPTO.
2. The system of claim 1, wherein the computer performs inference by using a Laplace approximation.
3. The system of claim 2, wherein the one or more supply chain products are slow-movers.
4. The system of claim 3, wherein historical sales data comprises multiple time series with the forecasted latent log of expected demand modified by transforming explanatory variables using local regression coefficients, wherein the local regression coefficients are conditioned by global regression coefficients.
5. The system of claim 4, wherein the future demand distribution comprises a negative binomial distribution with a zero-inflation weighting factor.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the computer performs inference by using a Laplace approximation.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein the one or more supply chain products are slow-movers.
10. The method of claim 9, wherein historical sales data comprises multiple time series with the forecasted latent log of expected demand modified by transforming explanatory variables using local regression coefficients, wherein the local regression coefficients are conditioned by global regression coefficients.
11. The method of claim 10, wherein the future demand distribution comprises a negative binomial distribution with a zero-inflation weighting factor.
14. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the software performs inference by using a Laplace approximation.
15. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 14, wherein the one or more supply chain products are slow-movers.
16. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 15, wherein historical sales data comprises multiple time series with the forecasted latent log of expected demand modified by transforming explanatory variables using local regression coefficients, wherein the local regression coefficients are conditioned by global regression coefficients.
17. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the future demand distribution comprises a negative binomial distribution with a zero-inflation weighting factor.
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June 3, 2015
August 2, 2022
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