Systems and Methods for Detecting Drill Break

This application claims priority to and the benefit of U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 63/643,468, filed on May 7, 2024, which are hereby incorporated by reference in their entireties.

Wellbores may be drilled into a surface location or seabed for a variety of exploratory or extraction purposes. For example, a wellbore may be drilled to access fluids, such as liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons, stored in subterranean formations and to extract the fluids from the formations. Wellbores used to produce or extract fluids may be formed in earthen formations using earth-boring tools such as drill bits for drilling wellbores and reamers for enlarging the diameters of wellbores.

Downhole tools may encounter and progress through a variety of different formations during a downhole operation. Different formations may exhibit different physical properties, and the downhole system may need to be adjusted based on the different formation in order to operate efficiently and safely. Additionally, certain subterranean targets or resources may be located within specific formations. Thus, it may be advantageous to identify when a downhole tool transitions from one formation to the next.

In some embodiments, a method of determining drill break of a downhole system includes receiving downhole data associated with a downhole tool implemented in a wellbore, the downhole data including rate of penetration (ROP) data of the downhole tool. The method further includes, based on the downhole data, determining a baseline ROP. The method further includes identifying a threshold change of the ROP data from the baseline ROP, wherein the threshold change is based on a dynamic threshold. The method further includes generating an indication of the threshold change. In some embodiments, the method may be implemented by a system. In some embodiments, the method may be performed as instructions included in a computer-readable storage medium.

This summary is provided to introduce a selection of concepts that are further described in the detailed description. This summary is not intended to identify key or essential features of the claimed subject matter, nor is it intended to be used as an aid in limiting the scope of the claimed subject matter. Additional features and aspects of embodiments of the disclosure will be set forth herein, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by the practice of such embodiments.

This disclosure generally relates to systems and methods for determining drill breaks of a downhole system. A computer implemented drill break system receives downhole data including, among others, rate of penetration data. The downhole data may also include flow rate data, torque data, weight on bit data, and depth data. Based on the downhole data, the drill break system determines that the downhole system is operating in a drilling state. For example, the drill break system determines that some or all of the downhole data is substantially constant and/or determines that specific types of the downhole data, such as the torque data, the weight on bit data, etc., are operating at values consistent with the drilling state of the downhole system.

Based on determining that the downhole system is drilling, the drill break system determines a baseline rate of penetration, representing an average or expected rate of penetration for the downhole system. The drill break system monitors the rate of penetration data against the baseline rate of penetration to identify any changes to the rate of penetration data that indicate drill break. For example, the drill break system may determine a localized average rate of penetration for comparing against the baseline rate of penetration.

The drill break system may identify drill break based on the localized average rate of penetration exhibiting a threshold change with respect to the baseline rate of penetration. The threshold change may be based on a dynamic threshold of the localized average rate of penetration. For example, the threshold change may dynamically change depending on the underlying baseline rate of penetration. For instance, for a relatively low baseline rate of penetration the dynamic threshold may require a more substantial change to the localized average rate of penetration than for a relatively high baseline rate of penetration. In this way, the dynamic threshold may be applicable for identifying drill break, but may adapt to different downhole conditions, circumstances, or drilling parameters which may exhibit different baseline rates of penetration.

The drill break system may generate an indication of the drill break, such as a flag, alert, data object etc. In some embodiments, the drill break system may cause one or more drilling parameters to be adjusted based on the downhole system encountering a different formation and/or may cause one or more additional measurements to be taken.

As will be discussed in further detail below, the present disclosure includes a number of practical applications having features described herein that provide benefits and/or solve problems associated with identifying drill breaks. Some example benefits are discussed herein in connection with various features and functionalities provided by a drill break system implemented on one or more computing devices. It will be appreciated that benefits explicitly discussed in connection with one or more embodiments described herein are provided by way of example and are not intended to be an exhaustive list of all possible benefits of the drill break system.

In many cases, it may be difficult, to identify transitions of the downhole system between formations. For example, downhole tools may be implemented a significant distance below the earth, and communication with the downhole tools may be limited. Additionally, in many cases, detailed information about the formations and/or makeup of the earth through which a downhole tool is progressing may not be available or may be unreliable. The drill break system described herein may determine drill break based on information that is generally readily available at the surface of a wellbore. For example, the drill break system may identify drill break based on identifying changes in rate of penetration, which is a metric that may be observed based on the rotation imparted by the drill rig at the surface. This may facilitate not only determining drill break more efficiently and in a simple manner, but may also allow for the techniques described herein to be performed in real time such that informed decisions may be made in a timely manner with respect to the operation of the downhole system. Further, the drill break system may accurately identify drill break without relying on formation evaluation information such as formation logs, 3D models, seismic data, etc., which may often not be available. Indeed, the drill break system may automatically identify and indicate transitions between formations without user input, offering significant advantages over conventional techniques which may employ experienced and skilled drilling engineers to read and interpret data to identify drill breaks.

Additionally, the drill break system identifies drill breaks based on identifying threshold changes in the rate of penetration data with a dynamic threshold. The dynamic threshold may dictate or define different thresholds for different downhole situations and circumstances. For instance, the dynamic threshold may incorporate the relationship that for low rates of penetration, a larger change may be required to accurately determine drill break while at higher rates of penetration, drill breaks may be identified based on smaller changes. In contrast, conventional techniques may identify drill break based on inaccurate heuristics such as based on a static threshold that is the same for any and all behaviors of the downhole system.

Further, identifying drill breaks may facilitate operating the downhole system in an efficient and safe manner. For instance, identifying positive and/or negative drill breaks, corresponding to transitions to softer and/or harder formations may inform the parameters with which to operate the downhole system, what operations to perform, how to steer a downhole tool etc. Indeed, certain types of formations may be associated with pay zones, underground reservoirs, or other resources or targets, and by identifying transitions to certain formation the downhole system may be effectively operated to reach or access these targets. Further, in many cases, certain formations such as softer formations may be associated with pressure fluctuations, fluid influxes, well control issues, and other risks which require timely action to avoid catastrophic results. Thus, by identifying when transitions to these formations occur, the drill break system may facilitate taking remedial actions to operate the downhole system safely and effectively.

Additional details will now be provided regarding systems described herein in relation to illustrative figures portraying example implementations. For example,shows one example of a downhole systemfor drilling an earth formationto form a wellbore. The downhole systemincludes a drill rigused to turn a drilling tool assemblywhich extends downward into the wellbore. The drilling tool assemblymay include a drill string, a bottomhole assembly (“BHA”), and a bit, attached to the downhole end of the drill string.

The drill stringmay include several joints of drill pipeconnected end-to-end through tool joints. The drill stringtransmits drilling fluid through a central bore and transmits rotational power from the drill rigto the BHA. In some embodiments, the drill stringfurther includes additional downhole drilling tools and/or components such as subs, pup joints, etc. The drill pipeprovides a hydraulic passage through which drilling fluid is pumped from the surface. The drilling fluid discharges through selected-size nozzles, jets, or other orifices in the bitfor the purposes of cooling the bitand cutting structures thereon, and for lifting cuttings out of the wellboreas it is being drilled.

The BHAmay include the bit, other downhole drilling tools, or other components. An example BHAmay include additional or other downhole drilling tools or components (e.g., coupled between the drill stringand the bit). Examples of additional BHA components include drill collars, stabilizers, measurement-while-drilling (“MWD”) tools, logging-while-drilling (“LWD”) tools, downhole motors, underreamers, section mills, hydraulic disconnects, jars, vibration or dampening tools, other components, or combinations of the foregoing.

In general, the downhole systemmay include other downhole drilling tools, components, and accessories such as special valves (e.g., kelly cocks, blowout preventers, and safety valves). Additional components included in the downhole systemmay be considered a part of the drilling tool assembly, the drill string, or a part of the BHA, depending on their locations in the downhole system.

The bitin the BHAmay be any type of bit suitable for degrading downhole materials. For instance, the bitmay be a drill bit suitable for drilling the earth formation. Example types of drill bits used for drilling earth formations are fixed-cutter or drag bits. In other embodiments, the bitmay be a mill used for removing metal, composite, elastomer, other materials downhole, or combinations thereof. For instance, the bitmay be used with a whipstock to mill into casinglining the wellbore. The bitmay also be a junk mill used to mill away tools, plugs, cement, other materials within the wellbore, or combinations thereof. Swarf or other cuttings formed by use of a mill may be lifted to the surfaceor may be allowed to fall downhole. The bitmay include one or more cutting elements for degrading the earth formation.

The BHAmay further include a rotary steerable system (RSS). The RSS may include directional drilling tools that change a direction of the bit, and thereby the trajectory of the wellbore. At least a portion of the RSS may maintain a geostationary position relative to an absolute reference frame, such as one or more of gravity, magnetic north, or true north. Using measurements obtained with the geostationary position, the RSS may locate the bit, change the course of the bit, and direct the directional drilling tools on a projected trajectory. The RSS may steer the bitin accordance with or based on a trajectory for the bit. For example, a trajectory may be determined for directing the bittoward one or more subterranean targets such as an oil or gas reservoir.

The downhole systemmay include or may be associated with a client devicewith a drill break systemimplemented thereon (e.g., or with a client application implemented thereon for accessing the drill break systemas described herein). The drill break systemmay facilitate identifying or detecting drill breaks of the downhole system, such as when the BHA, the bit, etc. encounters a sudden change between formations exhibiting different properties.

For example, while performing a downhole operation, the bit(e.g., and the BHA) may encounter several different formations. For instance, as shown in, the bitmay encounter and/or progress through a first formation-and a second formation-. The bitmay progress through any number of formations. The various formations may be different formations with different physical properties, different dimensions, may contain different downhole targets or resources, etc. For instance, different downhole tools and/or different drilling parameters may be implemented for different formations. In another example, certain formations may be associated with downhole resources such as a subterranean reservoir. Thus, it may be advantageous to identify when the bitpasses from one formation to the next.

The drill break systemas described herein may be implemented to facilitate determining when the bitencounters a transition from one formation to another. For instance, a third formation-may be positioned below or adjacent to the second formation-. The bitmay progress through the second formation-and the drill break systemmay identify when the bitpasses from the second formation-to the third formation-. For example, the drill break systemmay identify that a sudden change in the rate of penetration (ROP) of the bitis a result of a change in formation. The change may be of a threshold amount, which may be a dynamic or changing threshold as described herein. In this way, the drill break systemmay facilitate quickly identifying drill break in order that appropriate action may be taken. As used herein, a “drill break” is intended to refer to a sudden observable change in the behavior of a downhole tool (e.g., in rate of penetration) indicating that the downhole tool is or has transitioned from one formation to another.

illustrates an example environmentin which a drill break systemis implemented in accordance with one or more embodiments describe herein. As shown in, the environmentincludes a server device. The server devicemay include one or more computing devices (e.g., including processing units, data storage, etc.) organized in an architecture with various network interfaces for connecting to and providing data management and distribution across one or more client systems. As shown in, the server devicemay be connected to and may communicate with (either directly or indirectly) a client devicethrough a network. The networkmay include one or multiple networks and may use one or more communication platforms and/or technologies suitable for transmitting data. The networkmay refer to any data link that enables transport of electronic data between devices of the environment. The networkmay refer to a hardwired network, a wireless network, or a combination of a hardwired network and a wireless network. In one or more embodiments, the networkincludes the internet. The networkmay be configured to facilitate communication between the various computing devices via well-site information transfer standard markup language (WITSML) or similar protocol, or any other protocol or form of communication.

The client devicemay be representative of one or multiple client devices, and may refer to various types of computing devices. For example, the client devicemay include a mobile device such as a mobile telephone, a smartphone, a personal digital assistant (PDA), a tablet, a laptop, or any other portable device. Additionally, or alternatively, the client devicemay include one or more non-mobile devices such as a desktop computer, server device, surface or downhole processor or computer (e.g., associated with a sensor, system, or function of the downhole system), or other non-portable device. In one or more implementations, the client deviceincludes graphical user interfaces (GUI) thereon (e.g., a screen of a mobile device). In addition, or as an alternative, one or more of the client devicemay be communicatively coupled (e.g., wired or wirelessly) to a display device having a graphical user interface thereon for providing a display of system content. The server devicemay similarly refer to various types of computing devices. Each of the devices of the environmentmay include features and/or functionalities described below in connection with.

As shown in, the environmentmay include a drill break systemimplemented on the server device. While shown on the server device, the drill break systemmay be implemented wholly or in part on the client device, across the server deviceand the client device, or on or across one or more additional devices, such that different portions or components of the drill break systemare implemented on different computing devices in the environment. The client devicemay include a client application. The client applicationmay include an application or interface for interacting with and/or receiving the features of the drill break systemas described herein. In some embodiments, one or more of the functionalities or features of the drill break systemmay be carried out or performed on or by the client application. In this way, the environmentmay be a cloud computing environment, and the drill break systemmay be implemented across one or more devices of the cloud computing environment in order to leverage the processing capabilities, memory capabilities, connectivity, speed, etc., that such cloud computing environments offer in order to facilitate the features and functionalities described herein.

illustrates an example implementation of the drill break systemas described herein, according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure. The drill break systemmay include a data manager, a ROP manager, and a threshold manager. The drill break systemmay also include a data storagehaving downhole dataand drill break indicationsstored thereon. While one or more embodiments described herein describe features and functionalities performed by specific components-of the drill break system, it will be appreciated that specific features described in connection with one component of the drill break systemmay, in some examples, be performed by one or more of the other components of the drill break system.

By way of example, one or more of the data receiving, gathering, or storing features of the data managermay be delegated to other components of the drill break system. As another example, while one or more dynamic thresholds may be determined and monitored by the threshold manager, in some instances, some or all of these features may be performed by the ROP manager(or other component of the drill break system). Indeed, it will be appreciated that some or all of the specific components may be combined into other components and specific functions may be performed by one or across multiple components-of the drill break system.

Additionally, while, for example, depicts the drill break systemimplemented on a client deviceof the downhole system, it should be understood that some or all of the features and functionalities of the drill break systemmay be implemented on or across multiple client devicesand/or server devices. For example, data may be input and/or received by the data manageron a (e.g., local) client device, and the determinations of drill break may be performed on one or more of a remote, server, or cloud device. Indeed, it will be appreciated that some or all of the specific components-may be implemented on or across multiple client devicesand/or server devices, including individual functions of a specific component being performed across multiple devices.

As mentioned above, the drill break systemincludes a data manager. The data managermay receive a variety of types of data associated with the downhole system and may store the data to the data storage. The data managermay receive the data from a variety of sources, such as from sensors, surveying tools, downhole tools, other (e.g., client) devices, libraries, databases, user input, etc.

In some embodiments, the data managerreceives downhole data. The downhole datamay include measurements associated with a downhole tool implemented in wellbore. For example, the downhole datamay include measurements taken downhole by one or more downhole sensors. The downhole datamay include data taken at the surface.

In some embodiments, the downhole dataincludes measurements related to drilling parameters or a downhole behavior of a downhole too. For instance, the downhole datamay include ROP data. The ROP data may be measured (e.g., directly) by a downhole tool, or may be determined or inferred from the surface. For example, the downhole datamay include block position data of a block of a drill rig. Based on a position or movement of the block, the data managermay generate the ROP data for representing the rate at which a downhole tool is progressing (e.g., drilling) through the earth. In some embodiments, the ROP data may indicate an instantaneous ROP of the downhole tool. In some embodiments the ROP data my indicate one or more average ROPs of the downhole tool, such as a baseline ROP and/or a localized average ROP as described herein. In this way, the ROP data may indicate an instantaneous and/or historic characterization of a behavior of a downhole tool with respect to a formation. For example, in many cases, the ROP may be related to and/or influenced by a formation in which the downhole tool is positioned. For example, a relatively low ROP may correspond with the downhole tool progressing through a harder and/or stronger formation, and a relatively high ROP may correspond with the downhole tool progressing through a softer and/or weaker formation. In this way, the ROP data may be useful for characterizing a formation of a wellbore and/or for identifying a transition to a different formation, as described herein.

In some embodiments, the downhole dataincludes measurements of other drilling parameters. For example, the downhole datamay indicate weight on bit (WOB) data of the downhole tool. The WOB data may be (e.g., directly) measured by a downhole sensor, or may be determined or inferred from surface measurements, such as a hookload. In some embodiments, the downhole dataincludes torque data indicating a level of torque imparted on the downhole tool and/or imparted by the downhole tool to form the wellbore. The torque data may be measured by a downhole sensor, or may be determined based on a surface torque applied at the drill rig. In some embodiments, the downhole dataincludes a flow rate and/or a pressure of drilling mud and/or hydraulic fluids. In some embodiments, the downhole dataincludes measures of other drilling parameters such as a surface rotational speed (RPM), a downhole RPM, temperatures, pressures, or any other relevant drilling parameters. The downhole datamay indicate current and/or past measurement depths (MDs) of the downhole tool. For instance, the downhole tool may measure and/or track a distance which it has traveled beneath and/or through the earth, or the MD may be determined, calculated, and/or inferred by surface components based on one or more other measurements. In some embodiments, the downhole datamay include sensor and/or measurement data from MWD tools, LWD tools, and/or one or more other downhole tools or subs. For example, the downhole datamay include resistivity measurements, porosity measurements, gamma ray measurements, acoustic measurements, electromagnetic measurements, etc. In this way, the data managermay receive, collect, and maintain the downhole data, which may include a variety of measurements associated with a position, operation, behavior, performance, etc. of the downhole tool in order to facilitate the drill break detection functionalities described herein.

In some embodiments, one or more values or measurements from one or more of the sources of data that the data managerreceives or has access to may be incomplete, may be missing, or may otherwise not be available. For instance, one or more signals or data channels may become interrupted, lost, distorted, or may otherwise not be available, either temporarily or permanently. The data managermay be configured to determine or supplement these missing values. For example, the data managermay supplement the missing data with a past measured value or an average value. The data managermay provide missing data values in this way for a threshold amount of time, such as for a data interruption of 5 minutes.

In some embodiments, the data managermay not receive, (e.g., or may receive but may not specifically implement in connection with detecting drill breaks) formation data. For example, the drill break systemmay determine drill breaks without respect to or independent of formation data that may indicate specific details about a formation, transition between formations, etc. For instance, the drill break systemmay not incorporate lithology data, formation evaluation logs, coring data, mud logs, formation pressure data, seismic data, cutting analysis, or other information related to or known about a formation in which the downhole tool is implemented. As described herein, while the drill break systemmay collect or cause to be collected some or all of this formation information as a response to detecting drill break, in some embodiments, the drill break systemmay advantageously be configured to detect drill break without knowing specific details regarding the formation, but rather based on detecting ROP changes as described herein.

In addition to receiving data such as measurement data, in some embodiments the data managermay calculate or determine one or more metrics or values based on some or all of the data it receives. For example, the data managermay facilitate determining a baseline ROP and/or a localized average ROP as described herein. In some embodiments, the data managermay determine a formation strength. For example, the formation strength may be determined based on multiplying the WOB by the rotational speed and normalizing (e.g., dividing) by the ROP. In some embodiments, the data managermay determine an average, mean, and/or median formation strength as determined over a given distance. For example, the data managermay determine a median formation strength for a given interval, such as a 5 meter rolling interval. The median formation strength may be based on a median WOB and median rotational speed over the 5 meter rolling interval and normalized over a median or average ROP over 5 the interval.

In some embodiments, the data managermay determine and record a minimum, maximum, range, local minima, local maxima, or any other statistical determination for one or more measurements over a given interval or distance. For example, the data managermay maintain a record of a maximum and/or minimum for the formation strength, over the past 2 meters (or another interval). In some embodiments, the data managermay determine and maintain statistics for a previous stand or previous section of drill pipe of the downhole system. For example, the data managermay determine and record the average ROP for the previous stand. The data managermay determine and record the minimum and maximum formation strength for the previous stand. The data managermay determine and record any measurement or statistical values for any type of data or measurement in this way, and may do so with respect to any interval, such as a rolling interval of a given distance uphole of the bit, for the last stand, etc.

illustrates example downhole datathat the data managermay receive. As shown, the downhole data may indicate flow rate and flow pressure, torque, hookload, WOB, block position, instantaneous ROP, and bit depth.

As shown in, in many cases the downhole datamay be collected and/or received as time-series data. In some embodiments, the data managermay translate, transform, or otherwise convert the time-series measurements to a depth domain. For instance, based on the ROP (e.g., instantaneous ROP, average ROP, etc.) the data managermay normalize the time-series data to indicate the associated measurements with respect to depth. This depth-dependent downhole data may facilitate the drill break detection techniques described herein. For example, the ROP managermay determine, monitor, and/or generate one or more values based on a specific MD with respect to the downhole data. For instance, a baseline ROP may be determined and updated over a specified depth or range of depths of the wellbore. Thus, the data managermay convert time-series data to be depth-dependent in order that the downhole datamay be useful for identifying drill breaks as described herein.

In some embodiments, the data managermay determine a rig state of a drill rig of the downhole system. For example, the drill rig may operate in many different states such as tripping into or out of the wellbore, drilling, reaming, connection, transport, circulating, logging, well control, or any other rig state. The data managermay determine the rig state based on some or all of downhole data. For instance, the data managermay identify a tripping in or out drill state based on an increase in the block position and/or depth without initiation of one or more other drilling parameters such as RPM, flow rate, torque, etc. In another example, the data managermay identify a circulation rig state based on a flow rate and/or flow pressure of a certain value without other corresponding drilling parameters such as RPM, torque, etc.

In some embodiments, the data managermay identify a drilling state of the downhole system. For example, the data managermay identify an increase in the WOB and/or a decrease in the hookload indicating that the downhole tool is engaging the bottom of the wellbore. The data managermay identify an increase in the torque produced by the rig and/or imparted to the downhole tool indicating that the downhole tool is engaging the wellbore. The data manager may identify a certain value or range of a flowrate indicating that drilling mud is circulating as part of a drilling operation. The data managermay identify the drilling state based on any other measurement and/or characteristic of the downhole data. In some embodiments, the data managermay determine that the downhole system is operating in a drilling state based on one or more measurements of the downhole databeing substantially constant or uniform. For example, at the initiation of a drilling operation, it may take some time for certain parameters to ramp up, level off, or reach equilibrium. In some embodiments, the data managermay identify and differentiate an initiation stage of a drilling state from a working or operational stage of a drilling state based on identifying one or more constant, uniform, or equilibrium values of the downhole data. Identification of the (e.g., constant) drilling state by the data managermay facilitate the drill break determination techniques of the drill break system. For example, as described herein, identifying when the downhole datais constant may facilitate determining a baseline ROP, localized average ROP, and/or may facilitate identifying a drill break event from the downhole data.

In some embodiments, the data managerreceives user input. The data managermay receive the user input, for example, via any of the client devicesand/or server devices. Any of the data described herein may be input or augmented via the user input. For example, in some instances, some or all of the downhole datais received by the data manageras user input. The user input may be received in association with one or more functions or features of the drill break system, such as part of determining thresholds, identifying threshold changes, notifying or acting on alerts, or any other feature described herein.

The data managermay store any of the data it receives, generates, manipulates, etc., to the data storageas downhole data. Additionally, the data managermay receive and/or modify any of the data in real time in order to facilitate a real-time identification of drill breaks by the drill break system.

As mentioned above, the drill break systemincludes an ROP manager. The ROP managermay facilitate generating one or more values, metrics, or averages of the ROP data to facilitate identifying drill breaks. For instance, based on the downhole data, the ROP managermay determine a baseline ROP as well as a localized average ROP that the drill break systemmay monitor against the baseline ROP to identify when a downhole tool encounters a transition from one formation to another based on a dynamic threshold change in the ROP. The ROP managermay provide one or more of these metrics in order to facilitate the drill break systemidentifying drill breaks.illustrate examples of baseline ROP and localized average ROP, according to embodiments of the present disclosure.

As just mentioned, the ROP managermay determine a baseline ROP. The baseline ROP may represent an average, expected, recent, and/or reference ROP for the downhole tool. For instance, the baseline ROP may be based on previous ROP measurements taken uphole of the current MD, or may be based on previous ROP measurements from a previous downhole operation in the same or different wellbore. The baseline ROP may be determined based on (e.g., calculations from) formation evaluation logs, or formation models.

In some embodiments, the baseline ROP may be an average of the ROP data over a baseline distance. For example, the baseline distance may be a set (e.g., constant) distance or interval over which the baseline ROP is calculated. As shown in, the baseline ROP-may be calculated over a set baseline distance at time t=1. At time t=2, the downhole tool has progressed somewhat through the formation, and the baseline ROP-may be calculated based on the same set baseline distance (e.g., same length), but advanced according to the advancement of the downhole tool at time t=2. In this way, while the baseline distance may be a set or constant distance, it may be a rolling interval such that the baseline ROP-is a rolling average that progresses as the MD of the downhole tool increases. The baseline distance may be 1 meter, 2 meters, 3 meters, 4 meters, 5 meters, 10 meters, or any other distance. In this way, the baseline ROP-may provide a reference ROP for a somewhat recent distance through which the downhole tool has progressed.

In some embodiments, the baseline distance may not be a set distance or interval, but may be an increasing interval based on a specific MD or a specific position in the wellbore. As shown in, a baseline ROP-may be calculated at a time t=1 as an average over a baseline distance that extends back to an MD of interest. At time t=2, the downhole tool has progressed somewhat through the formation, and the baseline ROP-may be calculated as an average over a (e.g., larger) baseline distance that extends back to the same MD of interest. In this way, as the downhole tool progresses through the formation, the baseline distance over which the baseline ROP-is calculated and updated may accordingly increase. In this way, the baseline ROP-may represent a reference ROP for the downhole tool from some point of interest in the wellbore.

In some embodiments, the MD of interest(e.g., the point back to which the baseline ROP-is calculated) may correspond to an identified threshold between formations. For example, the drill break systemmay identify that the downhole tool transitions from one formation to another, and may set the MD of interestat a point associated with the transition between formations. In this way, the baseline ROP-may represent an average, expected, or reference ROP for how the downhole tool is or has behaved in that formation.

In some embodiments, the MD of interestmay correspond to a point at which the drill break systemidentifies that the downhole system is operating in a drilling state. For example, the MD of interestmay correspond to a point at which one or more drilling parameters of the downhole data have been identified as being substantially constant or uniform. In this way, the baseline ROP-may be representative of an average, expected, of reference ROP for the downhole tool under the constant and/or uniform conditions indicated by the (e.g., constant) drilling parameters such that any identified threshold change in the ROP may be more confidently attributed to a change in the formation, or drill break (e.g., rather than a change in parameters). The MD of interestmay be at any other position in the wellbore and/or may be based on any other identified condition or event. For example, in some embodiments, the MD of interestmay be at the surface such that the baseline ROP is an average ROP of the downhole tool calculated over an entirety of the length of the wellbore.

As described herein, the drill break systemmay monitor the ROP data against the baseline ROP in order to identify changes in the ROP data of a threshold amount. In some embodiments, the ROP data (e.g., an instantaneous ROP) may exhibit one or more measurement errors, stochastic spikes, outliers, noise, etc. As mentioned above, the ROP managermay determine a localized average ROP in order to smooth or average out some of the data artifacts in the ROP data that may not necessarily characterize an actual behavior of the downhole tool.

The localized average ROP may be an average of the ROP data calculated over a localized distance. The localized distance may be any distance such as a distance of greater than 1 meter. The localized distance may be 1.1 meters, 1.5 meters, 2 meters, 3 meters, 4 meters, 5 meters, 10 meters, or any other distance. For example, as shown in, the localized average ROP-may be an average of the ROP data calculated over a set interval or distance from a (e.g., current) MD of the downhole tool. The localized distance may be a rolling interval of a constant length that progresses in accordance with the progression of the downhole tool, similar to that discussed in connection with the baseline ROP-of. In some embodiments, the localized average ROP-may be calculated over a non-set, increasing interval extending back to a measurement depth of interest, similar to that discussed in connection with the baseline ROP-of. In this way, the ROP data may be monitored via the localized average ROP in order to more accurately characterize the current ROP behavior of the bit based on how the bit has behaved as it progressed through a recent distance of the formation.